48 Hours Before the US Elections
Hillary's been cleared by the FBI and the market has breathed a gentle sigh of relief. The Dollar is stronger and stock markets are slightly higher, as the general sense is that the 'no further action' announcement came just in time and will allow Clinton to take the White House.
We're not convinced that it's that easy and with 40 million postal votes already cast, Trump will have had quite a boost over the past couple of weeks with all that was hanging over Clinton and he's obviously still in with a chance of winning. On average across the polls Hillary has a 1.9 percent lead, which doesn't seem like a comfortable margin of error, given the amount of protest votes that we might see.
In the UK, Theresa May wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that a Brexit 'in full' is happening because “the people made their choice, and did so decisively. It is therefore the responsibility of the government to get on with the job”. Mrs. May is confident of overturning the ruling of the High Court, but if this doesn't happen there's confidence that some MP's would change their votes to reflect the referendum outcome and carry on with the task at hand.
In Europe; Alex Tsipras has had a cabinet reshuffle in a bid to get reforms moving a little quicker. The Greek PM wants to qualify to be included in the ECB's bond buying scheme and then hopefully be able to get back into global bond markets by 2018, conveniently in time for when the current bailout ends. Best laid plans… we still think we haven't heard the end of the Greek saga.
From Ireland; a government report has said that Brexit will knock 3.5% off Irish GDP within a decade whilst leaving unemployment 1.9% higher and wages 3.6% lower, effectively making Ireland worse off from a Brexit than the UK would be.
It's a short report today because the only thing we're looking at for the next 48 hours is the election. Even though we have a bit more certainty, we still think it's going to be a choppy time. Thereafter, hopefully, it's back to business as usual (or a complete nightmare all the way to Christmas).
Have a great week.
©Hamilton Court FX