Dollar Recovery Attempt Fails, European Majors Weak
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, rise from 1.0494 should have completed at 1.0905 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. The whole corrective rise from 1.0339 is possibly finished too. Deeper fall should be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0682) first. Sustained break there will affirm this view and target 1.0494 resistance for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.0826 minor resistance will indicate that the corrective rise from 1.0339 is still in progress. Intraday bias would then be flipped back to the upside for 1.0905 and above.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from
1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly
MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. This would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.
USD/JPY is staying in the consolidation from 110.10 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 111.57 minor resistance intact, further fall is still in favor. On the downside, break of 110.10 will extend the current fall from 118.65 to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42 and possibly below. Meanwhile, firm break of 111.57 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.88).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to
98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first.
Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.
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making, but merely provides information from the market for its clients as additional information being made available as per the events occurring in the financial markets.
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