Euro Maintains Post French Election Gains, ECB Meeting the Next Focus
Euro pares back some French election triggered gains, but stays broadly higher against all other major currencies, Markets generally welcome the results of the election and centrist Emmanuel Macron's win in the first round is seen as a boost to the Euro, Forward Eonia bank-to-bank rates also imply a roughly 60% chance of a 10bps hike by ECB by the end of March 2018, up from just 20% chance last week.
Euro will now look into ECB meeting later in the week for further strength. But ECB president Mario Draghi will likely stay cautious with his messages. Draghi warned last week that risks remain tilted to the downside. And “very substantial” accommodation is still needed. Nonetheless, he sounded a bit more relieved that there are “signs” of broadening recovery “across countries and sectors”, with a “somewhat brighter global recovery and increasing global trade”. Chief economist Peter Praet also noted that time for stimulus exit is yet to come. Separately, governing council member Ewald Nowotny said that the policy path for 2017 is “decided”. And ECB will “continuing bond purchases at a reduced level and leaving the interest-rate structures as they are.” Another member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that current policies were “fully appropriate” and recovery is “still fragile.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.0339 is still in progress and would extend higher towards 1.1298 resistance. But still, such rally is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd pay attention to topping signal above 1.0905 and below 1.1298 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.0777 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0569 support first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.
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