Sterling continue Down, Euro holds while Canadian soars
Sterling extended its slide following last week’s shock UK election which resulted in a Hung Parliament. GBP/USD fell more than 2% after Theresa May’s Conservative Party fell short of a ruling majority. The Pound finished lower, weighed by the political uncertainty surrounding the UK. The Euro held steady closing just above 1.1200. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY) finished little-changed at 97.19.
The Canadian Dollar climbed against its US counterpart a senior Bank of Canada official hinted at a more hawkish rate stance.
The NASDAQ slipped another 0.5% on continued selling of US tech stocks. The US S&P 500 slipped 0.1%.
Outlook: This week sees several central bank policy meetings. The FOMC is expected to raise rates for the second time this year when they meet (GMT 6pm Wed, June 14 / AEDT 4am Thursday, June 15). The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to remain on hold.
In the USAttorneyGeneral Jeff Sessions will testify before the Senate to field questions regarding Russian participation in the 2016 elections.
Trading View: The currency divide is set to continue as various factors move them. Sterling will remain weak while the Canadian Dollar should strengthen. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins remarked that the bank was considering removing its monetary policy stimulus. USD/CAD slumped 1.03% immediately after. We also highlighted last week that the net total of Canadian Dollar shorts was the biggest in almost a decade.
The Dollar Index (USD/DXY) should hold around its current levels ahead of this week’s FOMC policy meeting.
EUR/USD – had a narrow trading range after it slipped following the disappointment on the ECB rates meeting last week. The overnight range for EUR/USD was 1.1191-1.1231. There is immediate resistance at 1.1230 while good support lies at 1.1180. Expect more of this sideways trade today.
The latest CFTC/Reuters report (week ended June 6) saw an increase in Net speculative EUR longs to +EUR 74,009 contracts (from +EUR 72,869 contracts). This net speculative long EUR total is still the largest since October 2013. The market is long and bullish. Would look to sell any rallies in the Single Currency.
GBP/USD – Immediate support lies at 1.2630 with resistance at 1.2720. The UK political situation remains uncertain. Developments will be monitored closely. While the speculators are net short of Sterling, the amount is far from record levels so the positioning is not extreme. This suggests more downside to the Pound given current factors. We could see GBP/USD head back down to its next support level at 1.2500.
AUD/USD – Aussie grinded it’s way higher to finish at 0.7542 after holding at 0.7520. Trade was slow yesterday with Sydney and Melbourne on holiday. National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence Survey for May is released today (GMT 1.30 am, Tuesday, June 13/AEDT 11.30 am, Tuesday, June 13). The support at 0.7520 should hold unless we see a nasty surprise in the NAB Business Survey.
USD/JPY – There is good resistance at 110.50 which should hold on the day. Immediate support lies at 109.50 (overnight low was 109.62). The Bank of Japan has its policy meeting on Friday. The BOJ is expected to keep its rates on hold. The latest CFTC/Reuters report showed that total net speculative JPY shorts increased to -JPY 55,027 contracts from the previous weeks – JPY 52,275 contracts. Today’s likely range is 109.50-110.30.
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***Information contained in this news letter are gathered from third parties and should not be regarded in any way as trade advice or recommendations by CM Trading. CM Trading does not recommend or advise traders or investors in their decision making, but merely provides information from the market for its clients as additional information being made available as per the events occurring in the financial markets.
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